Guarding against financial black swans as U.S. monetary tightening dragging down global markets

　　美股上周出现黑色星期五，三大指数急挫近3%，主要是市场忧虑联储局重手加息遏通胀。其实，当前全球通胀严重，与美国霸凌行为、无理制裁打压他国有密切关系，美国扰乱全球供应链与国际贸易，加剧能源与粮食价格升势。对美来说，此举最终损人不利己，尤其是联储局猛力收紧货币，增加了政策失误、经济硬着陆的风险，当然更会对包括香港在内的全球经济与金融市场稳定性构成重大威胁。

　　因此，财政司司长陈茂波昨日在网志中发出预警，直言尽管疫情逐步受控，加上消费券效应，支持本季经济逐步改善，但仍需要防范外围风险，特别是地缘政治局势和息率走势。

　　美国通胀陷入失控状态，联储局要采用更激进方式收水，加剧股债楼等资产价格波动性，进一步暴露美国以至全球经济与金融的脆弱性，随时可能爆发新一波金融风暴。香港金融监管当局须保持高度警觉性，既要警惕美国紧缩货币政策导致资金流向突变，更要紧盯市场不寻常交易情况，提防大鳄炒家恶意做空图利，冲击金融市场。

　　近日联储局主席鲍威尔暗示下月可能加息半厘，承认最初错估通胀只属暂时性，现在要加大紧缩货币政策的力度，这轮加息周期调升利率的幅度恐高于2015年至2018年期间的2.25厘。由此产生负面外溢冲击波不容低估。故此，香港不能掉以轻心，宜作好部署与预案准备，强化应对金融突变的能力。

　　美国货币政策急转向，由量化宽松货币变成为紧缩货币政策，潜藏巨大风险。首先，联储局大幅加息难以有效遏抑通胀。事实上，美国出现高通胀，根本原因在于肆意挥舞贸易制裁大棒，制裁打压中国等国家，结果反噬自身；再加上未有做好疫情防疫工作，以致出现物流运输等问题，不断推高物价。而近期的俄乌冲突，又进一步加剧全球供应紧张。因此，联储局通过加息解通胀，意图让全球替美国劣行买单。

　　最令人不安的是，联储局高估经济承受收水能力，除了大幅加息之外，还有可能启动缩减资产负债表规模（缩表）进程，逐步减持美债资产，回收过去多年来向市场投放数以万亿美元计流动性，市场流动性急速收紧，经济将面临严峻考验。

　　其次，联储局进取加息，大大增加金融突变风险。现时美长债息已较一年前倍升，导致企业融资与楼按利率显著增加。当心信贷利率升势过快、过急，蚕食企业利润之余，更会加剧企业债务负担，债务违约潮恐一触即发。

　　第三，美进取收水，遇上全球去美元化，持续减持美元资产，可能刺破美股美债超级泡沫，产生后续冲击难以估计，不排除引发美元危机。国际货币基金组织已发出警告，包括美国在内的全球推进紧缩货币政策，若然加息幅度超预期，股市债市将面临抛售风险。

　　美国无疑是全球经济与金融风险之源，一方面继续无理打压与制裁，扰乱产业链供应链，加剧能源与粮食危机，结果要由全球来埋单，增加世界经济下行压力；另一方面是联储局最初错估物价走势，现在急忙收水，无端加剧市场震荡，对环球金融稳定构成重大风险。目前全球正进入“三高一低”的时期，即高债务、高通胀、高利率与低增长，当心未来飞出更多金融黑天鹅，投资者要做好风险管理。

U.S. stock market suffered a Black Friday crash last week with the three major indexes shedding nearly three per cent, mainly because of worries about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) taking a heave-handed approach to interest rate hikes. As a matter of fact, worsening global inflation at present is closely related to the Uncle Sam,　　bullying behaviour and unreasonably imposing sanctions on other countries, which play havoc with global supply chain and international trade and intensify energy and grain price hikes. For the U.S., such moves harm others without benefiting itself in the end. In particular, the Fed's aggressively tightening monetary policy increases the risks of making policy mistakes and leading to an economic hard-landing, which certainly will pose a great threat to the stability of the world's, including Hong Kong's, economies and financial markets .

Because of this, Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po gave an early warning in his blog yesterday. He straightforwardly points out that although“the gradually subsided epidemic situation, coupled with the boosting effect of the consumption vouchers, will support a steady recovery of the [Hong Kong] economy since this quarter”, “we have to stay vigilant to the turbulent external environment, particularly the geopolitical situation and the interest rate trend.”　　

As inflation in the U.S. seems to spin out of control, the Fed has to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. This will intensify stock, bond and property price fluctuations to further expose the fragility of America’s economy and financial markets, and even the world's, to cause a new wave of financial storm at any moment. Hong Kong's financial supervision authorities must keep high vigilance, not only watching out any sudden change in capital flows, but also keeping a close eye on unusual market transactions and taking precautions against vicious short selling for profiteering by“big-crocodile” speculators to send shocks to the financial markets.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently hinted a possible 50-basis-point interest rate hike next month. He admitted that the Fed had earlier misjudged inflation as “transitory” so it would have to tighten monetary policy more aggressively now. Total interest rate hike during the current rate‑hiking cycle is likely to be more than the total increase of 2.25 percentage points in 2015-18. The resulted negative spillover effect must not be underestimated. Hence, Hong Kong must not take it lightly but must make preparations and responsive plans in advance so as to strengthen our capability to cope with any sudden change in the financial markets.

　　The sudden change of the U.S. monetary policy, from quantitative easing to monetary tightening, implies enormous risks. First of all, inflation can hardly be curbed unless the Fed increases interest rates sharply. Actually, the fundamental reason for high inflation in the U.S. lies in that Uncle Sam wantonly waves the big stick of trade sanction to impose sanctions on China and other countries, which however backfires in the end. In addition, the U.S. does not do a good job in epidemic controls so problems with logistics and transportation crop out to keep pushing inflation higher and higher. The recent Russia-Ukraine conflict further agravates global supply shortage. Therefore, the Fed wants to ease inflation by increasing interest rates in an attempt for the world to pay for the vices committed by Uncle Sam.

The most unnerving is that the Fed overestimates the U.S. economy's capability to sustain monetary tightening. So in addition to aggressive rate hikes, it may also likely to start the process of balance sheet reduction, gradually decreasing its stake in U.S. treasury bonds to reduce the liquidity　　amounting to trillions of U.S. dollars in the financial market that it has injected into in past years. Market liquidity may be tightened dramatically and the economy may face a serious test.

Secondly, the Fed's aggressive rate hikes greatly increase the risk of sudden changes in financial market. Right now, the long-term interest rate of U.S. treasury bonds already doubles that in a year ago, prompting remarkable increases in interest rates for enterprise financing and housing mortgages. It is afraid that too fast and too sharp rises of lending rates would not only nibble away at enterprises' profit margins but also increase their debt burdens. So much so that debt defaults could be triggered at any moment.

Thirdly, America's aggressive monetary tightening takes place amid global de-dollarisation with many countries continuing to reduce their U.S.-dollar assets. In consequence, the super bubbles of U.S. shares and treasury bonds are likely to burst. The follow-on shocks are hard to estimate. It cannot be ruled out that a U.S.-dollar crisis could be prompted. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has already warned that global stock and bond markets were at risk of further sell-offs as central banks including the Fed, which are pursuing monetary tightening globally, might be forced to raise interest rates more than investors anticipate.

The U.S. no doubt is the source of global economic and financial risks. On the one hand, it continues to unreasonably suppress and impose sanctions [on other countries]. This interrupts the global industry chain and supply chain and deepens energy and gain crises, and the whole world has to pay for this, which increases the downward pressure on the world economy. On the other hand, the Fed, which originally misestimated the price trend, now has to speed up monetary tightening. This unexpectedly intensifies market fluctuations, posing a major risk to global financial stability. Right now the world is entering a period of “three highs and one low”, namely high debts, high inflation, high interest rates and low growth rate. Investors must carefully mange risks, remaining alert that more financial black swans may　　come on the scene.